Election Prediction 11/1: Obama 338, McCain 200

If the election were held today, Barack Obama would defeat John McCain.  My prediction for electoral votes is 338 for Obama, 200 for McCain.  To figure this, I'm taking the state-by-state averages calculated below, subtracting 5 points (note the change from 6 points in previous maps) from Obama's margins for the race factor (see Bradley Effect), and adding 2 for the segment of youth vote not tracked well in telephone polls.  So Obama needs to be winning a state by 3 points for me to consider it a win for him.  And before you call me out on that... yes, I'm applying some rough science here.

For these polling averages, I'm using polling data aggregated at RealClearPolitics.com.  However, my averages are not the same as RCP's, because I've eliminated some of the most out-of-date figures, for the sake of greater accuracy (not to benefit how the numbers look for either candidate).  I am only accepting data from polls that sampled within the past 5 days on the national level, or past 7 days on the state level.  All national polls contain no data collected prior to October 27, and state polls contain no data collected prior to October 25.



National = 538 Electoral Votes
Obama 50
McCain 43.9
(+6.1 Obama)

Florida = 27 EV
Obama 50
McCain 45.8
(+4.2 Obama)

Pennsylvania = 21 EV
Obama 51.2
McCain 43.4
(+7.8 Obama)

Ohio = 20 EV
Obama 49
McCain 43.3
(+5.7 Obama)

Michigan = 17 EV
Obama 51.5
McCain 40.5
(+11 Obama)

North Carolina = 15 EV
Obama 48.3
McCain 47
(+1.3 Obama)

Georgia = 15 EV
Obama 46
McCain 49
(+3 McCain)

Virginia = 13 EV
Obama 51
McCain 45.7
(+5.3 Obama)

Missouri = 11 EV
Obama 47.7
McCain 48.3
(+0.6 McCain)

Indiana = 11 EV
Obama 46.8
McCain 47.3
(+0.5 McCain)

Wisconsin = 10 EV
Obama 54
McCain 40.5
(+13.5 Obama)

Minnesota = 10 EV  
Obama 52
McCain 40.3
(+11.7 Obama)     <------ site of the Republican National Convention

Arizona = 10 EV
Obama 45.8
McCain 49.3
(+3.5 McCain)

Colorado = 9 EV
Obama 51.5
McCain 45.3
(+6.2 Obama)     <------ site of the Democratic National Convention

West Virginia = 5 EV
No data from past 7 days
Latest RCP average: +8.5 McCain

Nevada = 5 EV
Obama 50
McCain 43.7
(+6.3 Obama)

New Mexico = 5 EV
Obama 54
McCain 44
(+10 Obama)

New Hampshire = 4 EV
Obama 52.7
McCain 42
(+10.7 Obama)

Maine = 4 EV
No data from past 7 days
Latest RCP average: +16.2 Obama

Montana = 3 EV
Obama 45.3
McCain 49
(+3.7 McCain)

North Dakota = 3 EV
Obama 46
McCain 47
(+1 McCain)