Will America be a desert by 2100? Or Africa, India or China, for that matter?
Chances are, according to MIT projections, that global median surface temperature will rise by 9.4oF (5.2oC) by 2100, unless there will be rapid and dramatic action on global warming.
The wheel on the right depicts the study's estimate of the range of probability of potential global temperature rise by 2100 if no policy is enacted on curbing greenhouse gas emissions.
The wheel on the left assumes that aggressive policy is enacted, and projects a lower rise.
The projections show rises ranging up to 13.3oF (7.4oC), based on probabilities revealed by 400 simulations.
Even the worst-case scenario in the study may actually understate the problem, because the model does not fully incorporate positive feedbacks that can occur, such as large-scale melting of permafrost in arctic regions and subsequent release of large quantities of methane.
To illustrate the magnitude of such feedbacks, I have added three images that I earlier discussed in comments under Global Warming - Red Alert!
A recent study estimates that some 1672 petagrams (billion metric tons) of carbon is trapped in arctic permafrost, pictured in the above image. This is roughly equivalent to a third of all the carbon in the world's soils and twice as much as is in the atmosphere.
Secondly, a UK Met Office study find that a 4oC rise within 100 years would kill 85% of the Amazon rain forest. Loss of the rain forests will come not only with dramatic loss in biodiversity, it will also transform what now still is a huge carbon sink (see image below) into a net contributor of carbon emissions, further fueling global warming.
Finally, I've added an edited version below of an image, courtesy of New Scientist, showing what the world would look like before the end of this century, if global temperatures rose 4oC.
Without action, anthropogenic CO2 emissions will persist in the atmosphere for many millennia, as suggested by a recent study.
So, will America be a desert by 2100, perhaps filled with solar panels to power the equipment of the few people still alive on Earth? Or, can we get our act together and implement a comprehensive response to global warming, such as described in this Global Warming Action Plan.
What's your view? Feedback on all this is appreciated, feel encouraged to make comments below.
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Comments: 24
Only the lord knows the truth.. Man can guess
Man can do much more than just guess. For, "An assumption, even though it is false, if it is persisted in, will eventually harden into fact." So, imagine better than the best you know, and persist in believing things already to be true.
How would it feel right now if all the deserts were starting to blossom as the rose? Give thanks that what Leonard Ornstein is proposing is now starting to happen! If this were so, it would feel pretty good, eh?
There'd be an intense emotion of relief! Correct? Well then, hold fast to that imaginal act, and persist night after night in 'believing' it into existence. Go to sleep with a sense of gratitude that it already is so.
"Wait but a little while..." is the ancient instruction - for it is sure to come, and it won't be late. Confident expectation is the key. Then, in a way beyond us ever finding out, it must come to pass in our tomorrows!
To learn more about this incredible mystery, and please listen to this audio: http://realneville.com/
I will make one comment; as a proud graduate of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute I will point out that the computer models were done by MIT. Actually I'll make another comment, everyone knows the law engineers follow; calculate precisely and then add 20%.
Whatever happens we must adapt or die. It's that simple. I hope it doesn't take 50 years of trying in vain to alter Mother Nature as we see fit before we realize that we should have been working harder to adapt ourselves instead. Nobody has ever figured out how to stop hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanoes and other natural phenomena... the best ways to deal with all of those things is to adapt and try to live with them.
The Bible predicts all of these things. Famine, pestilence, war & widespread hatred... these things may be inevitable, and the biggest question is when. Even if you don't believe in prophecies you have to acknowledge that you may be mistaken, especially when a good number of them have already been fulfilled.
Hi Lydia, not only did the seer of The Book or Revelation foretell "order out of chaos" but most all other prophecy points in the same.
It is possible (judging by the claims made by various sources) that in the coming "zero point time" "the dark rift" "the galactic alignment of 2012" mankind will be removed from this earth, thus allowing this earth to heal, in the same way we allow farm lands to regenerate.
Prophecy (is a link)
 I am "not" following this conversation (to many to follow) therefore if you have comment regarding mine, please use the Contact Us on my website, or send a private message.
From my perspective the world is filled with endless possibilities, thus each of us having our own reality to explore and share with others. Therefore, if you do not appreciate my understanding, please do me the courtesy of emailing me to tell me that you do not agree before deleting my comment to your post. I will then do my best to remember you so I do not comment on your posts again.
Thank you,
Travis
I doubt it.
Only time will tell.
The deserts absolutely will expand and in Texas there will be more deserts as well as the states east of the Rockies but west of the Mississippi and south of the Missouri.
However the rest of the country? I think not.
We need to adapt to the world, it change sconstantly, I doubt we have any real impact on it! The continents shift, climates change, we don't!
Despite the discouraging possibilities, Sam, I continue to appreciate your presentations of this kind of material for they remind me to stay as focused as I can on doing something to affect this situation. The Purdy Recycling Project continues on despite terrible prices for recycled materials; we are about to reach 200,000 lbs. of materials kept out of landfills and we are beginning to lay some groundwork for future expansion that we hope will allow us to get into municipal composting and pyrolysis. You help keep me connected to the larger vision and I appreciate your diligence.
Pollution of the world's water and air is a part of the "commons" which historically generated tragedies. There is money to be made by reducing one's personal costs by increasing everyones pollution costs. So long as money is working against the prevention of pollution and against cleaning up the polution by others there will be no solution before disaster. The nature of our money has done this to millions of people all over the world in the past. (Note deforestation and its consequences in history.)
We can change the nature of our money and thus actually have a chance to change other things for the better but until people realize that our money is the root and source of the problem we have no chance at all.
www.nopom.info
The House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee has approved H.R. 2454.
The bill has been watered down, from an earlier aim to reduce emissions by 20% in 2020, it now aims to cut emissions by 17% compared to 2005 levels in 2020, by 42% in 2030, and by 83% in 2050.
I have wondered for years why no effort was ever made to replant forests in Greece, Iran, Iraq, unfarmed areas along the Mississipi/Missouri/Platt Rivers in the U. S. and many other places.
My mother once said, the only reason there is any forest left in Europe is because of the land holdings of the ruling classes, kept for their personal hunting pleasures.
Instead of replanting in the U. S., we are using mountain top removal for goal,
two ways to make climate change faster. burning coal destruction of the forests.
Look also at the Carribean Islands, some once had forests, now only bare hills.
But then you well know, according to the conservatives(capitalists now all of them)
Say :::::"There is no global warming/climate change.
Capitalism cannot survive without continued population growth and the cheapest most destructive methods for natural resource extraction.
Beth-Just one day at a time J. May 21, 2009, 8:34am EDT
Only the lord knows the truth.. Man can guess
thanks for that smug and non-reality-based sentiment. Growing up, I often heard the phrase "God helps those who help themselves". Which would imply of course that God tends to ignore fatalistic and lazy persons. I seem to require that much was demanded of Noah, for example. The Ark did not magically appear. But why am I arguing religion, when the entire point here is to pay attention to the science? Beth, it is not "one day at a time" we are talking about here, it is the future of the human race. Grow up!
"hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanoes and other natural phenomena... the best ways to deal with all of those things is to adapt and try to live with them."
more fatalism and religious rejection of science. Adorable.
ten for you , Sam, lonely voice in the Wilderness.
Lydia: "I hope it doesn't take 50 years of trying in vain to alter Mother Nature as we see fit before we realize that we should have been working harder to adapt ourselves instead."
Actually, the legislation Sam refers to above (HR 2454) attempts to alter man's destructive behavior - not Mother Nature.
I remember a fellow from Africa once comment re: the "Save the Planet" campaign a few years back, "Save the Planet my ass!!! The planet will dump man like a bothersome parasite - and then take a million years to heal itself. Man should be concerned with saving himself."
Of course, if you've been watching the History Channel program, "Life After People", the planet will heal itself in a much shorter time than a million years. A few decades should suffice for most of it.
Above image is from a recent publication by James Hansen, who recently said: "Climate change — human-made global warming — is happening. It is already having noticeable impacts. ... If we stay on with business as usual, the southern U.S. will become almost uninhabitable."
The image below, from a 2006 NOAA presentation, projects changes to the drought index for 2035 to 2060 for the contiguous United States.
Looking back at my notes, I considered adding above image when writing above post, complemented by the prediction by the Richard Seager et al., published in Science, May 25, 2007, that levels of aridity of the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts would become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.
Meanwhile, the South still remains in the grip of the drought, as pictured on the image below, from the U.S. droughtmonitor.
This animation shows graphically how little has changed over the past 12 weeks.
The Palmer Drought Severity Index classifies the strength of a drought by tracking precipitation and evaporation over time and comparing them to the usual variability one would expect at a given location. A reading at or below -4 indicates extreme drought. Readings below -6 are currently rare, even during short periods in small areas.
Officials worry that the blaze could burn all summer, devastating not only the state's air and water quality, but also its $10-billion annual tourism industry, reports the LATimes.
In New Mexico, 2,500 people were forced to evacuate their homes, while 230 homes burned in the Little Bear Fire, which was sparked by lightning on June 4, and has consumed 37,912 acres of the Lincoln National Forest, reports Reuters. More than 1,300 firefighters and others have be working to cope with the disaster, including 400 National Guardsmen ordered to protect property and assist evacuations and returns.
In southeastern New Mexico, firefighters continued to battle what is known as the Whitewater-Baldy Complex fire, the largest in the state's history. The 289,478-acre fire is now 56 percent contained, officials said.
Meanwhile, President Obama has signed a bill speeding up delivery of air tankers to fight wildfires.